On 13 April, the European Climate Foundation (ECF) launched its ‘Roadmap 2050’ report, which lays down four different scenarios for decarbonising the EU’s power sector in order to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% by 2050. “I am encouraged by the main message which comes from this analysis (...) that substantial decarbonisation of energy in Europe by 2050 is both technically and economically feasible”, said EU Energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger, adding that the ECF report will be “of great use in preparing our infrastructure package for later this year". His reaction was echoed by Climate Action Commissioner Connie Hedegaard, who also welcomed the study.

Spanish State Secretary for Energy Pedro Marín Uribe, EU Energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger, European Climate Foundation CEO Jules Kortenhorst, Spanish State Secretary for Climate Teresa Ribera	Commissioner Oettinger receives a copy of the 2050 Roadmap from ECF CEO Jules Kortenhorst

 

At the launch of the ‘Roadmap 2050’ report, the European Renewable Energy Council (EREC), like other environmental and energy stakeholders, was enthusiastic that “deploying renewable energy technologies is not more expensive, and even rather cheaper than conventional sources when taking all costs into account – social and environmental benefits, such as avoided fossil fuel or CO2 cost”...

In his bid for re-election as Commission president, José Manuel Barroso, promised that decarbonising Europe's electricity supply and transport system would be a priority for the 2010-2015 Commission. The ECF report comes as the European Commission is preparing its own paper on pathways to a low-carbon economy by 2050. The commission will also issue a new impact assessment for a 30% cut in EU emissions by 2020, based on its work on 2050 scenarios, EU Climate Commissioner Connie Hedegaard stated at the launch of the ECF report.

The authors of the report claim that Europe's electricity supply can be decarbonised with existing technologies, such as solar, wind or biothermal, or technologies close to market readiness, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS). The biggest stumbling blocks are political rather than technical, they argue. Public opposition to new overhead power lines, wind farms, nuclear plants and carbon storage is “likely” to drive up costs or delay implementation, the report says.

The ECF researchers tested different scenarios where Europe gets 40%, 60%, 80% or 100% of its energy from renewables by 2050. Under the ECF models, average annual spending would begin to decline again after 2040. Average spending on new infrastructure would be between €43 and €57bn over the entire 2010-2050 period. They will have risen from €28 billion in 2005 to an annual spending of between €58 and €71bn by 2025, depending on the energy mix chosen. According to the study’s projections, about 400.000 jobs would be created in clean technologies, versus potentially 250.000 job losses in fossil fuel supply chains.

The report is calling for more “aggressive” action to increase energy-efficiency, as well as an obligation at EU level on governments to invest in power lines and grid. According to the study, the EU ETS (Emissions Trading Scheme) will not be enough on its own to provide incentives for low-carbon investments.

The ECF urged the EU to review its budget allocation to allow for more investment in renewables, CCS, energy efficiency and network infrastructure. The EU budget should also be revised to assess whether low-carbon technologies are adequately funded.

The launch was attended by over 400 guests including MEPs and think tank, business and industry delegates as well as the Brussels-based civil society communiy engaged in climate protection.

                               

REACTIONS

EU Energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger congratulated the European Climate Foundation for this report: "This work will be of great use in preparing our infrastructure package for later this year", he said. Indeed the European Commission is set to present its energy infrastructure package in November. This package is expected to focus on improved interconnections and the promotion of smart grids to improve efficiency and help connect renewables to the grid. Mr. Oettinger said: “I am encouraged by the main message which comes from this analysis (...) that substantial decarbonisation of energy in Europe by 2050 is both technically and economically feasible”, adding that networks “can no longer be local or national ; they are continental”.

Pedro Marín Uribe, Spanish state secretary for energy, pointed out that a significant portion of the future renewable energy mix would be intermittent, requiring substantial regulatory changes as well as investment of capital into managing the electricity system: "This type of manageability is very difficult to tackle in small systems, but as larger systems are considered, this difficulty is reduced thanks to the diversification of technologies, and geographical weather as well as climate conditions", he said. "Therefore the energy model of the future cannot be based, like in the current one, on self-sufficient, national systems with some poor interconnections with limited capacity", he added, saying that a move to an electricity system with a European dimension is inevitable.

Spain’s Secretary of State for Climate Change, Teresa Ribera, said: “We have a great capacity to improve, expand, build technological alliances with third countries that are taking on even steeper electricity supply challenges than Europe is.”

GLOBE EU Vice-President Graham Watson MEP (ALDE, UK) agreed with former Bulgarian Commissioner for Consumer Affairs Meglena Kuneva that today’s challenge is to obtain a broad and active support from the public. There is a clear need for incentives to change the consumers’ behaviours.

The Greens at the European Parliament welcomed the report in a press release: ''If even conservative consultancies such as McKinsey and KEMA come to the  conclussion that a 80% renewables-based energy-mix is not only possible but also not more expensive than risky alternatives like the CCS (carbon capture and storage) and nuclear energy, then time has really come for the EU to review its political priorities”.

 

WWF said the report support its vision of 100% renewable power for Europe by 2050 by showing that it would be only 5-10% more expensive than other low-carbon pathways considered in more detail in the study. "The EU must now get to work, planning its long-term energy strategy based on 100% renewable power. This will be good for the climate, phase out risks of nuclear power and fuel import dependency, guarantee power supply, and would provide the most cost-effective and acceptable sustainable energy pathway for Europe", said Stephan Singer, director of global energy policy at WWF.

EREC (European Renewable Energy Council) President Arthouros Zervos said: "This study shows clearly that the cost of delivering reliable, decarbonised power by 2050 is roughly the same across a wide range of potential technology and resource choices – which underlines the fact that deploying renewable energy technologies is not more expensive, and even rather cheaper than conventional sources when taking all costs into account – social and environmental benefits, such as avoided fossil fuel or CO2 cost".

Lars Josefsson, Eurelectric chairman: “The Roadmap 2050 report clearly states that clean electricity is necessary and important element is in the decarbonisation of Europe. This will only be successful in the battle against climate change is built on strong political cooperation both in Europe and internationally. We will need all the low-emitting generation options available to achieve this target in due time and a well functioning ETS market will ensure that the decarbonisation is obtained at an acceptable cost for society. A well-developed European grid is needed to use generation resources in the best way possible.”

Rainer Baake, Deutsche Umwelthilfe: “The assertions constantly repeated in the current German discussions according to which renewables are far too expensive and unable to ensure a secured energy supply, turn out to be part of an interest-led campaign of fear and misinformation (…) there is no choice to be made between the devil and Beelzebub, between highly-risked and expensive.”

Christoph Bals, Germanwatch: “There were first doubts among business stakeholders whether a scenario with the use of 80% renewables is feasible by 2050 with reasonable expenses and the same supply security for the EU (…), but it finally turned out that a 100% renewables scenario is possible, with the same system security and at the same cost.”

 

Nick Mabey, chief executive of E3G, which also contributed to the report, said the study reveals that "the benefits of the low-carbon pathway far outweigh the challenges". "A commitment now to a low-carbon transformation of the energy sector is the winning strategy for competitiveness, jobs and prosperity in the UK and Europe", he added. "Achieving a minimum 80 per cent CO2e reductions in 2050 based on zero carbon power generation in Europe is technically feasible and makes compelling economic sense."

 

European Climate Foundation

"The energy intensity of the economy will start to fall quite early, probably around 2020", said Tom Brookes, head of the Energy Strategy Centre at the European Climate Foundation (ECF). "Whichever direction you want to go, you probably need to start now", he argued. "Delays only make things much more expensive."

Professor J. Schellnhuber, Chair of the ECF Advisory Board and Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, believes that the “Roadmap 2050” impressively illustrates an exemplary and attractive pathway for the EU. By pioneering the sustainability transition in a crucial sector, Europe can not only help to overcome the international deadlock but also harness the great economic potential of a zero-carbon power supply.