It is looking increasingly likely that negotiations may have to continue for a further year before a comprehensive, legally-binding global climate treaty can be agreed. This is the view of Yvo de Boer, the UN climate chief, who was speaking at the last round of UN talks before the Copenhagen summit in December, in Barcelona last week.

‘I don't think we can get a legally binding agreement by Copenhagen. I think that we can get that within a year after Copenhagen’, were the words of Mr de Boer, with many speculating that the most realistic outcome is that a political agreement will be reached in December instead.

This is provoking contrasting reactions from industrialised and developing economies. On the one hand, developed countries would not necessarily see it as a failure if negotiations do not get as far as agreeing to legally-binding targets by the end of the COP-15. Sweden’s chief climate negotiator, Andres Turesson, has noted that if the outcome of the Summit were to fall short of previous expectations, this would not ‘diminish the importance of Copenhagen’, since what is crucial is that the ‘agreement must contain the important contents of the future climate change regime.’

However developing countries, as well as environmental groups, have reacted far more critically to this possibility. The chair of the Group of 77 and China (a coalition of developing countries), Lumumba Di-Aping reacted by saying ‘I do not know of anything called a politically binding agreement’, implying that clear and binding targets would be a necessity in the eyes of the G77.

There was a particular focus on the US, with developing and developed countries alike, urging the Obama administration to put forward binding commitments. They both see the US as perhaps the key figure, which could still potentially mobilise the necessary political will for an acceptable deal.

The amount of money proposed by the EU to support climate mitigation and adaptation efforts in developing countries, was also criticised in Barcelona. The EU, who had agreed that funding of between €22-50 billion of international public money would be needed annually by 2020 to finance climate efforts, were however praised for opening the dialogue on how much the maritime and aviation sectors should contribute to such plans.

With the Summit now less than a month away time is evidently running out. Analysts believe that the success or failure of reaching a binding agreement is dependent on world leaders showing the necessary political will, something which has not been forthcoming enough so far.