Copenhagen deal hangs by thread as Asia Pacific Summit looks to delay legally-binding agreement
Tuesday, 17 November 2009 14:19 | 
| 
|
The chance of a legally-binding global climate deal being agreed in Copenhagen seems to have been all but dashed, after it emerged the various Asian leaders as well as the US administration were backing Denmark’s 'one agreement, two steps' stance, which Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen proposed during an unscheduled meeting to the Summit last week. Mr Rasmussen explained that since it was looking almost impossible that an agreement on binding commitments would be reached, it now made sense to look at what is realistic, namely a ‘political agreement’, which would provide the basis for the future global climate deal.
Explaining his proposal he said ‘Given the time factor and the situation of individual countries we must, in the coming weeks, focus on what is possible and not let ourselves be distracted by what is not. The Copenhagen agreement should finally mandate continued legal negotiations and set a deadline for their conclusion.’.
It is likely that all the contentious decisions where agreement is yet to be reached, namely on emissions targets and financing and technology transfers will be delayed until the ‘second phase’, which people have speculated could be as late as Mexico City next December.
This news will only serve to further frustrate and anger many countries in Africa and the world’s poorest economies more generally who have insisted that a full agreement would have to be reached in December, fearing the urgency of the situation is perhaps being overlooked. Several EU countries have also spoken of their determination to have a more ambitious outcome when the COP-15 finishes in just over a month’s time.
The reality however, is that without the US and other leading Asian economies on board, there is unlikely to be any sort of basis for a deal, paving the way for the UN to prepare an additional summit at which point the proposed targets would be made legally-binding. It is not clear when this would be, with many speculating the world would perhaps have to wait until the COP-16 in Mexico next December, however UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has suggested a shorter time-frame would be more realistic, provided the US Senate is able to pass the US climate bill in the meantime.
With the threat of a failure to reach a binding global deal growing, Brazil has stepped forward and made pledges of its own – to take emissions back to 1990 levels (representing a 30% drop from 2005 levels) - in what is surely also an attempt to show the kind of leadership necessary ahead of Copenhagen and to pressure its counterparts to make equally ambitious commitments.
Should a binding global climate deal not be reached in a little over a month, it will be up to the UN to coordinate an additional conference where the necessary and appropriate decisions will be made.
Explaining his proposal he said ‘Given the time factor and the situation of individual countries we must, in the coming weeks, focus on what is possible and not let ourselves be distracted by what is not. The Copenhagen agreement should finally mandate continued legal negotiations and set a deadline for their conclusion.’.
It is likely that all the contentious decisions where agreement is yet to be reached, namely on emissions targets and financing and technology transfers will be delayed until the ‘second phase’, which people have speculated could be as late as Mexico City next December.
This news will only serve to further frustrate and anger many countries in Africa and the world’s poorest economies more generally who have insisted that a full agreement would have to be reached in December, fearing the urgency of the situation is perhaps being overlooked. Several EU countries have also spoken of their determination to have a more ambitious outcome when the COP-15 finishes in just over a month’s time.
The reality however, is that without the US and other leading Asian economies on board, there is unlikely to be any sort of basis for a deal, paving the way for the UN to prepare an additional summit at which point the proposed targets would be made legally-binding. It is not clear when this would be, with many speculating the world would perhaps have to wait until the COP-16 in Mexico next December, however UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has suggested a shorter time-frame would be more realistic, provided the US Senate is able to pass the US climate bill in the meantime.
With the threat of a failure to reach a binding global deal growing, Brazil has stepped forward and made pledges of its own – to take emissions back to 1990 levels (representing a 30% drop from 2005 levels) - in what is surely also an attempt to show the kind of leadership necessary ahead of Copenhagen and to pressure its counterparts to make equally ambitious commitments.
Should a binding global climate deal not be reached in a little over a month, it will be up to the UN to coordinate an additional conference where the necessary and appropriate decisions will be made.
| < Prev | Next > |
|---|
