UNEP releases new report on "decoupling" natural resource use from economic growth
Thursday, 19 May 2011 08:19 | 
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This report from UNEP´s International Resource Panel has sought to apply the concept of decoupling economic growth and human well-being from negative environmental impacts and escalating resource use. It poses, the UN says, "an unprecedented opportunity and challenge to society"...
The authors claim that by the middle of the century, humanity could consume an estimated 140 billion tonnes of minerals, ores, fossil fuels and biomass per year -three times the current annual consumption- under a business-as-usual scenario. This amounts to 16 tonnes per capita for a predicted population of 9 billion. With the growth of boh population and prosperity, especially in dveloping countries, the prospect of much higher resource consumption levels is "far beyond what is likely sustainable" if realized at all given finite world resources, the UNEP report warns.
The UNEP´s International Resource Panel defines the concept of "decoupling" as follows: it is about achieving a rate of resource productivity greater than the economic growth rate, which means "doing more with less". That goals demands an urgent rethink of the links between resource use and economic prosperity, as well as massive investment in technological, financial and social innovation, to at least freeze per capita consumption in industrialised countries and help developing nations follow a more sustainable path.
The authors claim that by the middle of the century, humanity could consume an estimated 140 billion tonnes of minerals, ores, fossil fuels and biomass per year -three times the current annual consumption- under a business-as-usual scenario. This amounts to 16 tonnes per capita for a predicted population of 9 billion. With the growth of boh population and prosperity, especially in dveloping countries, the prospect of much higher resource consumption levels is "far beyond what is likely sustainable" if realized at all given finite world resources, the UNEP report warns.
The UNEP´s International Resource Panel defines the concept of "decoupling" as follows: it is about achieving a rate of resource productivity greater than the economic growth rate, which means "doing more with less". That goals demands an urgent rethink of the links between resource use and economic prosperity, as well as massive investment in technological, financial and social innovation, to at least freeze per capita consumption in industrialised countries and help developing nations follow a more sustainable path.
“Decoupling makes sense on all the economic, social and environmental dials”, said UN Under Secretary-General Achim Steiner, UNEP’s Executive Director, after the study´s launch on 12 May. “Decoupling is part of a transition to a low carbon, resource efficient Green Economy needed in order to stimulate growth, generate decent kinds of employment and eradicate poverty in a way that keeps humanity's footprint within planetary boundaries”, he went on, adding that next year´s ´Rio+20´ summit will be a good opportunity to make progress towards sustainability in global resource use.
Ernst U. von Weizsäcker, co-chair of UNEP´s International Resource Panel and former chair of the Bundestag´s Environment Committee, said: “We must realize that prosperity and well-being do not depend on consuming ever-greater quantities of resources. Decoupling is not about stopping growth. It’s about doing more with less. Global resource consumption is exploding. It’s not a trend that is in any way sustainable.”
The report´s authors argue that decoupling “will require significant changes in government policies, corporate behaviour, and consumption patterns by the public…Innovation, even radical innovation, will be required.” They describe three possible scenarios for an equitable global resource consumption by 2050:
Under the "business-as-usual" scenario, per capita resource consumption remains stable in industrialised countries, while the rest of the world continues the current trend to catch up ; this path would lead to annual total consumption of 140 billion tonnes of natural resources -or 16 tonnes per capita for a world population of 9 billion- which "represents an unsustainable future in terms of both resource use and emissions, probably exceeding all possible measures of available resources and assessments of limits to the capacity to absorb impact".
The second scenario suggests a moderate contraction of consumption in developed countries, and a convergence by others: industrialised nations would halve average per capita consumption to 8 tonnes, while other countries would rise to that level. This would lead to a total of 70 billion tonnes annually -a 40% increase from 2000 levels. Moreover, average CO2 emissions per capita would rise almost 50% to 1.6 tons per capita and global CO2 emissions would more than double. “This scenario presupposes substantial structural change amounting to a new pattern of industrial production and consumption that would be quite different from the traditional resource-intensive Western industrial model”, the report says.
Under the third, more ambitious, scenario, industrialised nations would reduce per capita resource use by two thirds while other countries would stay at current levels. This would result in a global per capita consumption rate of 6 tonnes and total world consumption of about 50 billion tonnes (the 2000 level). This scenario would be so restrictive, and so unappealing to politicians, that it “can hardly be addressed as a possible strategic goal”, the authors admit. However, even with such drastic measures global consumption levels would still be considered as unsustainable by many scientists.
“These scenarios challenge our current thinking and assumptions about development”, the report reads. “If investments in developing and developed countries are made today that lock humanity into a business-as-usual or moderately improved resource intensive growth path, the risks of running into ecological and supply constraints will worsen”.
The report´s authors argue that decoupling “will require significant changes in government policies, corporate behaviour, and consumption patterns by the public…Innovation, even radical innovation, will be required.” They describe three possible scenarios for an equitable global resource consumption by 2050:
Under the "business-as-usual" scenario, per capita resource consumption remains stable in industrialised countries, while the rest of the world continues the current trend to catch up ; this path would lead to annual total consumption of 140 billion tonnes of natural resources -or 16 tonnes per capita for a world population of 9 billion- which "represents an unsustainable future in terms of both resource use and emissions, probably exceeding all possible measures of available resources and assessments of limits to the capacity to absorb impact".
The second scenario suggests a moderate contraction of consumption in developed countries, and a convergence by others: industrialised nations would halve average per capita consumption to 8 tonnes, while other countries would rise to that level. This would lead to a total of 70 billion tonnes annually -a 40% increase from 2000 levels. Moreover, average CO2 emissions per capita would rise almost 50% to 1.6 tons per capita and global CO2 emissions would more than double. “This scenario presupposes substantial structural change amounting to a new pattern of industrial production and consumption that would be quite different from the traditional resource-intensive Western industrial model”, the report says.
Under the third, more ambitious, scenario, industrialised nations would reduce per capita resource use by two thirds while other countries would stay at current levels. This would result in a global per capita consumption rate of 6 tonnes and total world consumption of about 50 billion tonnes (the 2000 level). This scenario would be so restrictive, and so unappealing to politicians, that it “can hardly be addressed as a possible strategic goal”, the authors admit. However, even with such drastic measures global consumption levels would still be considered as unsustainable by many scientists.
“These scenarios challenge our current thinking and assumptions about development”, the report reads. “If investments in developing and developed countries are made today that lock humanity into a business-as-usual or moderately improved resource intensive growth path, the risks of running into ecological and supply constraints will worsen”.
The European Commission is expected to present a roadmap on resource efficiency this summer. The 2011 ´Green Week´ to take place next week (24-27 May) will be dedicated to resource efficiency.
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